J. Scott Armstrong's Past Articles

J. Scott Armstrong

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J. Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), Professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-range Forecasting (1978, 1985). In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six “Honorary Fellows” by the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a creator of forecastingprinciples.com as well as < a href="http://www.PollyVote.com" target="_blank">PollyVote.com, and the Editor of Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer 2001), an evidence-based summary of knowledge on forecasting. Along with Kesten Green, he has proposed and tested two techniques for predicting actions in conflict situations: simulated interactions and structured analogies. These were shown to produce substantial improvements in accuracy in comparisons with traditional methods (papers on these techniques are in full-text at conflictforecasting.com).

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